Electricity minister’s plan for stage 7 load-shedding and beyond

Electricity minister Kgosientso Ramokgopa has given his assurance that South Africa’s grid won’t collapse, despite the intensity of load-shedding increasing as we head into winter.

However, he also said that stage 6 load-shedding is already devastating, and anything beyond that would have disastrous consequences.

In an interview with 702, Ramokgopa explained that certain interventions are in place to ensure a grid failure doesn’t occur.

“We will not have a blackout,” he said. “In this instance, I mean a total system collapse.”

“The network operator has the exclusive responsibility to look after the integrity of the network. That person will not take instruction from the minister or the President. He will maintain the integrity of the network so that there is no collapse.”

“There is about 2,000MW of reserve margin that is meant to protect the integrity of the network. We are not close to a blackout,” Ramokgopa added.

However, he said he believes the situation’s risk of further deterioration is high.

“I think there is a risk of the situation getting worse,” Ramokgopa said.

When asked to elaborate on what he meant by the situation worsening, the minister explained that certain aspects of public works and other sectors wouldn’t be able to operate.

“Firstly, load-shedding is bad. It’s terrible. Stage 6 is devastating,” he said.

“But anything beyond stage 6, I think now you are going to be subjected to about 16 hours in a 32-hour cycle of no electricity.”

“Production won’t happen under those conditions. The reservoirs can’t be replenished. The waste-water treatment works won’t work, and your data centres will be compromised,” Ramokgopa added.

However, when asked whether the scenario mentioned above is what South Africans will face this winter, he said government and Eskom are discussing interventions to prevent such a situation.

“No, not exactly. I mean, if the set of actions that we are proposing aren’t implemented, then the probability is very high,” Ramokgopa responded.

He also outlined and explained some of the interventions, including:

• The protection of strategic installations at data centres, hospitals, and national key points;
• “Aggressively” reduce demand from households;
• The completion of agreements to procure additional power from neighbouring countries; and,
• Continuing to run open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) by burning diesel.

Gourikwa open-cycle gas turbine power station

He explained that if need be, government will procure emergency power sources like generators to keep these strategic installations up and running.

“We will get emergency power sources. Even if it means generators that have to run with diesel, that comes at great cost,” Ramokgopa said.

Regarding “aggressively” reducing demand in households, Ramokgopa used geysers as an example, saying that they significantly impact demand.

“The market does offer technology that allows us to disconnect geysers remotely. We’ve got about eight million of them in the country,” he said.

“So we can provide some support to ensure that we roll out those installations, almost making it compulsory.”

“If you were to do that, you could save anything from 2,500MW to 4,000MW,” the minister added.

Load-shedding’s impact on the economy

In the interview, Ramokgopa also highlighted the impact of Eskom’s rotational power cuts on the country’s economy and specific industries.

“Load-shedding is causing major devastation to the South African economy. When we did the numbers, they suggest that we are likely to lose upwards of 800,000 jobs as a result of the current intensity of load-shedding,” he said.

He referenced modelling done by the South African Reserve Bank, which estimates that just 1,000MW of load-shedding — equivalent to just stage 1 — costs the South African economy R300 billion.

Ramokgopa engaged with original equipment manufacturers in the automotive industry in South Africa.

“They told us that anything beyond stage 5 cuts profit to their operations, and they don’t come competitive. Their ability to produce and export is severely hampered,” he said. “And now we’re at stage 6, and it’s sustained.”

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